Regional Economic Modeling: A Systematic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis

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In what ways has Asia been developing as a region, i. The Asian Financial Crisis marked a watershed as in the post-crisis period Asian countries are actively seeking to promote regional cooperation and integration. AE International Economic Policy 3 AUs This course will address a number of cutting-edge issues in international economic policy in a rapidly globalising world. The course will be divided into two parts. The first will focus on issues in the areas of international money, finance, and exchange rates with particular attention to the evolving international financial architecture and the challenges for financial stability associated with closer international financial integration.

The second part will deal with issues in the trade area related in particular to the interaction between the economic and political dimensions of trade policy and the recent shifts from multilateral approaches to trade liberalisation toward more regional and bilateral approaches. Even though the focus of the course will be on global issues, extensive examples will be provided of the implications for the Asian economies and how the region is responding to the challenges of globalisation.

Behavioural economics challenges some of the basic assumptions of traditional economics about human economic behaviour and incorporates insights from other disciplines such as psychology and sociology. New insights derived from more realistic assumptions about human behaviour will enable the policymaker to better formulate and evaluate economic policy. AE Industrial Organisation 3 AUs Applying microeconomic theory to examine the economics of firms and industries, this course will first examine fundamental concepts such as the rationale for the modern firm and the definition of markets and market power.

On the basis of these concepts, the course will then analyse issues such as the exercise of monopoly power, strategic interaction between firms and competition policy, highlighting recent developments and real-life case studies. The theoretical foundation of the module is based on utility and profit maximization, upon which we derive the demand for labour, supply of labour, and human capital investment.

The course makes use of this premise to explore specific topical issues such as wage determination, training and re-training, labour migration, industrial relations, trade unions, collective bargaining, work incentives and labour contracts. Half Courses. AE Financial Econometrics 1. AE Industrial Organisation 1. AE International Economic Policy 1. The course is divided into two parts.

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The first focuses on issues in the areas of international money, finance, and exchange rates with particular attention to the evolving international financial architecture and the challenges for financial stability associated with closer international financial integration. The second part deals with issues in the trade area related in, particular, to the interaction between the economic and political dimensions of trade policy and the recent shifts from multilateral approaches to trade liberalisation toward more regional and bilateral approaches.

Even though the focus of the course is on global issues, extensive examples will be provided of the implications for the Asian economies and how the region is responding to the challenges of globalisation. The specific topics covered depend on the expertise of the instructors who are expected to be leading Microeconomists in their respective specialization. The specific topics covered depend on the expertise of the instructors who are expected to be leading Applied Econometrics in their respective specialization.

This class comprises of two parts: The theoretical segment of the class focuses on how to properly frame an economic research question. The applied segment aims to explain the basics of survey design, going down to the ground to collect information, processing and cleaning up raw data, analyzing the data and writing up a formal research paper. Not all classes will be held in the lecture theatre as students will be required to go out into society to learn how to collect the required data. Again, this may be due to the fact that the CUM model is specific to tourism, lodging and hospitality industry.

It only utilizes data from visitor spending whereas the other two models do not. Furthermore, it only utilizes county-specific information. The other two models utilize four counties for each of the two study samples. In addition, market dynamics and relative regional competitiveness across time are also included. Prior to selecting one economic impact model over another, decision-makers should consider the following primary factors as outlined previously in Table 3: 1 cost of the economic impact software 2 time period of the analysis; multi-year or static, and 3 level of detail with respect to multipliers and indirect and induced effects.

REMI is highly complex built on an input-output econometric framework, however, it is also the costliest software. The authors examined the overall structure of these economic impact models but do not strive to recommend one economic impact model over another given the multifaceted uses by economic modelers. Siverts, D. Olson, J. Wagner, D. Senf, and S. Olson ed. Archer, B. The Impact of Domestic Tourism. Bangor: University of Wales Press. Aydin, N. Baker, K.

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Aydin Florida Tax Watch report. Bell, Frederick W. Personal communication. Bonn, Mark A. Bell Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Crihfield, J. Campbell Jr. Clawson, M. Knetsch Economics of Outdoor Recreation. Resources for the Future. Deller, S. Fenich, G. Personal Communication. Cloud Convention and Visitor Bureau. Technical Report. Fishkind H.

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Blaine Frechtling, Douglas C. Brent Ritchie and Charles R. Goeldner eds. Kraybill, D. Boulder, CO: Westview Press: Kuhbach P. Herauf Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts for Meis Lynch, Tim Department of Transportation, Washington D. Miller, R. Blair Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Prentice-Hall, Inc. Perlich, Pamela Regional Economic Analysis and Impact Models. Eccles School of Business, University of Utah publication. Regional Economic Models, Inc. Amherst, MA. Schwer Rickman D. Robey, J. Kleinhenz Stynes, D. Guidelines for Measuring Visitor Spending.

Travel Industry Association of America Personal Communication with Dr. Tien Tian. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, Mass. Census Bureau, Economic Census. Department of Marketing and Statistics. Tallahassee, Florida. Cambridge Systematics. Q1 and Tampa, Fl. Type Conjoined input-output and Regional input-output Derived from labor force behavior model economics,linear equation Individual tourism arrivals II.

Sector Scheme Disaggregated Unlimited and dependent upon survey variable numbers. Data Secondary Secondary Primary X. Related Papers.


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A comparison of three economic impact models for applied hospitality and tourism research. By Mark A. The economic impact of academic centers and institutes on state-level GRP. By Julie Harrington. By Donald English.

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By Randy Deshazo. Download pdf. Remember me on this computer. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Need an account? The study also noted that tourism expenditures supported , jobs in Visit Florida, Baker and Aydin, Literature Review of Economic Impact Models There have been various studies relating to the economic impact estimation of tourism spanning the last twenty years, however, few articles exist that compare the performance of those models. Following is a literature review of several of the studies that have examined economic impact modeling and performance with respect to the tourism industry.

Stynes has conducted numerous studies that focused on the economic impacts of tourism.

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It is the latter issue of economic impact modeling that this paper will address. Archer described the sources available to acquire data and the necessary processes to adapt these data for use in input-output modeling. He noted that a local or regional consumer expenditure survey is rarely available and is both expensive and time- consuming. He pointed out that while input-output analysis further refines the basic multiplier processes; the transference to service in particular, tourism sectors is hampered by the lack of definition as to the tourism industry.

A seminal work, and highly quoted tourism economics text, Economics of Outdoor Recreation, Clawson and Knetsch, discussed the economic impact of outdoor recreation, including tourism, on local areas. Although the book did not cover economic impact modeling, per se, it provided an economic impact foundation for the calculation of multipliers and procedures regarding expenditure surveys. He recommended using the ad hoc model and the input-output approach, depending on the budget available and the expertise of the researchers. In conclusion, he advocated that the time has come to progress beyond measurement issues and begin to draw conclusions that can be applied broadly to public marketing, planning, and development decision making.

To date, their studies are the only ones that exist. In their study, Rickman and Schwer examined how multipliers compared among various versions of the models. However, this limitation could result in unintentional underestimation because it is arbitrary and non-scientific. With respect to tourism, the CUM quantifies the economic impact labor and fiscal that tourism has on the local economy. This information was compared with the Smith Travel information to provide an increased accuracy. Visitor expenditures hotels, transportation, entertainment, and food, etc.

Using CUM to estimate the total number of visitors was especially valuable when the event is open access and visitor numbers cannot be obtained by the total number of tickets sold. The CUM has been used by Bonn and Bell and to estimate economic impact, recreational use value and visitor numbers associated with natural springs, artificial and natural reefs. These studies involved 21 Florida counties over a six year period of time.

Economic impact is measured by the direct and indirect output and employment created by visitors as well as total wages paid to visitor industry employees and the geographic distribution of the paid salaries. CUM does not address induced impacts. A multiplier of 1. Direct employment and wages were estimated using the latest statistics published by Economic Census, the U.

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Census Bureau Economic Census, For the two events and two quarterly databases studied in this article, the Economic Census was used and updated using the Consumer Price Index i. Figure 1 outlines the theoretical framework for the calculation of economic impact estimates in CUM. Figure 1. REMI is based on neoclassical theory and was founded in The basic assumption of REMI is that the model is based on theoretical structural restrictions rather than individual econometric estimates based on single time-series observations for each region.

In addition, it is the chosen tool to measure these impacts by a number of universities and private research groups that evaluate economic impacts across the state and nation. Figure 2 provides a baseline for the calculation of economic impact estimates in REMI. The REMI model shares two underlying assumptions with mainstream economic theory: households maximize their utility and producers maximize their profits. The REMI model includes hundreds of equations that describe cause-and-effects relationships in the economy, extending beyond an input-output model.

However, the model is not county specific which could lead to unnecessarily inflated results. Other input-output models primarily are used for static or single year analysis. The theoretical framework is input output, developed by Wassily Leontief, for which he received the Nobel Prize in The basic assumption of the IMPLAN model is that the fundamental information in input output analysis involves the flow of products from each industrial sector producer to each of the industrial sectors considered as consumers.

This information is contained in an inter-industry transactions table. The columns represent the composition of inputs required by an industry to produce its output. It is non-survey based, and its structure illustrates that of input-output models found in the regional science literature. Constant returns to scale production function i. Homogeneous sector output 3. No input substitution 4. No supply constraints 5. Technology and trade relations are assumed. Need to account for Price changes.

Need to account for Structural changes d. Employment increase or decrease causes immediate in or out migration i. Table 1 provides a summary of the three economic impact models. Also, data were collected for two quarterly research projects involving visitors to Florida destinations within specific counties: Tampa Hillsborough County and Tallahassee Leon County , Florida.

Data were collected based on a series of personal interviews for each of the two events encompassing three days. Additionally, data were collected over the course of three months for each of the two quarterly databases. The following discussion is a detailed explanation on methodologies for each of the two events and the two quarterly databases that were used in the economic impact analysis comparisons.

The annual event consists of a day parade that traverses an eight-mile parade route along what may be the longest contiguous sidewalk in the United States. On-site surveys were conducted based on a randomized sampling design.


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  7. Surveyors were stationed at specific parade route points and they were stationed on both sides of the parade route. Every third adult was approached for qualification as a non-resident. If the third adult was a local resident, then the next adult was approached for non-resident qualification purposes. In this study, Gasparilla visitors were defined as those who were non-Hillsborough County residents. Ultimately, Gasparilla visitors provided data suitable for this analysis.

    University of Miami vs. A significant number of tickets were purchased by local residents, including students, and were therefore omitted from the analysis. Surveyors were stationed at specific data collection points around the stadium. Additionally, surveys were conducted at randomly selected lodging properties within the county. This process continued until non-resident attendees were identified. In this study, visitors were defined as those who were non-Leon County residents. A total of usable data were collected during the event weekend.

    Tallahassee, Florida; Q1, Visitors to Tallahassee Leon County, Florida were personally interviewed as part of a comprehensive destination marketing research project. During random days, sites, and times, visitors were randomly screened using random numbers to qualify them as non-residents.

    Once qualified as non-residents of Leon County, visitors were asked to respond to a survey related to their on-site most recent travel experience. Information pertaining to economic expenditures, party size, and length of stay, demographics, and activities pursued during this trip, primary destination for this visit, and many other dimensions were represented on the survey instrument.

    The survey methodology was conducted identical to the Tallahassee Q1 study. A total of 1, surveys were identified as suitable for the analysis. Comparisons were conducted using the three economic impact model results. Comparisons examined the increase in employment and economic output generated by tourism activities specific to the county economies. The net economic stimulus from tourism is estimated by summing tourism expenditures based on survey data for four economic activities and events: Gasparilla, Miami vs. The direct expenditures were divided into the following for each of the four databases: lodging, event admission fees, and restaurants, evening entertainment, shopping, ground transportation, groceries and all other.

    These expenditures were then used as inputs for the three Florida regional input-output models that include cross linkages among every sector of the Florida economy. This analysis measures those direct and indirect economic increases flowing from tourism dollars based on the four expenditure databases. Measured economic impacts include increases in: 1 Total Output; 2 Income; 3 Employment.

    Short-term economic impacts are the net changes in regional output, earnings, and employment that are due to new dollars entering into a region from a given enterprise or economic event. In this study, the enterprise is tourism, and the region is specific Florida counties.

    The effects of expenditures external to Florida termed leakages were not included in the impact estimates.